Le Pen Conviction--There's a Pattern Here

Courts in the European Union keep derailing the establishment’s political opposition.

This past week, an anti-establishment French politician (demonized as “far right”) was barred from running for office for five years. Pay no attention to the fact that the polls indicate this person would likely win the most votes for president, if the election were held today.

“Moralization of public life”

Right-wing National Rally leader Marine Le Pen has been found guilty in a Paris court of embezzling European Union funds. Accused of enabling a system whereby aides hired to serve in Brussels ended up doing work for the party, she was also fined and sentenced to two years of home detention. The allegations against Le Pen date back to roughly 2014--more than a decade. But now the verdict conveniently takes her out of the 2027 election cycle.

The situation with the National Rally leader and presidential favorite, conveniently removed from further ballots, is part of a pattern and not just in France.

Just ask Romania’s Câlin Georgescu, who was on his way to victory before getting politically sidelined by the “legal system”: arrested, accused of foreign funding, then ultimately just dismissed for a paperwork technicality. On the other hand, the establishment elite should be careful what they ask for--Georgescu’s replacement, George Simion, is surging in the polls.

Disqualifying candidates for offenses like corruption, fraud, or electoral violations was not always the case in France--until Emmanuel Macron’s party conveniently made it so in 2017. Timing can be critical: that law, referred to as the “moralization of public life,” was enacted barely three years after Brussels put Le Pen under legal scrutiny. A mere coincidence?

A huge advocate of the “moralization law,” of course, was Macron ally and centrist leader, François Bayrou. He supported it--right up until he found himself a victim of it--accused of the same EU violations as Le Pen. Justice comes in many forms. 

His tenure in office as Macron’s justice minister lasted roughly 30 days, before getting canned by the very person who appointed him in the first place. But, not to worry, things change. Acquitted last year, he was later handpicked, again, but this time as Macron’s prime minister.

The irony in the above is that it was Le Pen’s party that received the most votes in that election, and the anti-establishment left won the most legislative seats. But here's how politics works in France: neither the anti-establishment left (with the most seats) nor the anti-establishment right (with the most votes) entitles you to actually govern in France. At the same time, leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon became under investigation for--wait for it--the same type of “disqualifying offense” involving EU funding as Le Pen.

It’s little wonder that Donald Trump looks at this debacle and sees reflections of himself in Le Pen’s situation. “She was banned for five years and she was the leading candidate,” the president remarked. “That sounds like this country.” His allusion, of course, was to the US.

Consider this: If Trump was a French citizen, and had been convicted of his own election-related charges, he would have been precluded from running for president. The lesson here is clear: Let the people decide if the person convicted is still a better electoral option. Democracy means letting people choose--even if their choice needs a parole officer rather than a campaign manager.

Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán tweeted, “Je suis Marine,”

There’s a distinct pattern here: every time a candidate starts looking like a real threat to the establishment elite, the legal system suddenly finds a reason to hit “pause.”

Dominique Strauss-Kahn is another classic example of judicial overreach driven by elitist political agenda. In 2011, as head of the IMF, Strauss-Kahn was eyeing the Élysée Palace as his next residence. But the system had other ideas: a New York hotel maid accused the economist of sexual assault. Translation: “Do not pass go; do not collect $200.” And for the coup de gras, French authorities later charged him with pimping. He was subsequently acquitted of the charges, but running for office when “Accused Pimp” is on your curriculum vitae doesn't bode well amongst the populace.

Next, there's François Fillon, a former prime minister, who was leading the race to replace then president François Hollande. But it was not to be. An investigative rag received a tip that Fillon was allegedly paying his wife and kids to hold bogus parliamentary assistant jobs. His campaign collapsed; the result was the birth of a political unknown--Emmanuel Macron--who, by the way, won the election.

Le Pen’s conviction precipitated strong reactions from her political allies. Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán tweeted, “Je suis Marine,” in a nod to the “Je Suis Charlie” slogan that emerged after jihadists attacked the Parisian newsroom of the “Charlie Hebdo” satirical magazine. 

“Declaration of war by Brussels”

Dutch right wing anti-establishment politician Geert Wilders called the sentence “incredibly harsh” and predicted that she would prevail on appeal and potentially win the French presidency.

What has been surprising is the response from the more mainstream politicians. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has condemned the conviction of French presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen, saying it undermines the voice of millions of voters. Commenting on the verdict, Meloni told Italian newspaper Il Messaggero on Tuesday: “I don’t know the merit of the objections made to Marine Le Pen, nor the reasons for such a harsh decision. But I think that no one who cares about democracy can rejoice in a sentence that affects the leader of a large party and takes away representation from millions of citizens.”

Meloni joined a chorus of French and international politicians in criticizing the ruling, which many called undemocratic. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini on Monday described the verdict as a “declaration of war by Brussels.”

But history is instructive in this regard. It illustrates that French elections (as well as others in the EU) are not just won or lost at the ballot box--they’re also engineered politically and (if need be) played out in the courtroom. Somehow, the establishment party never seems to be the one “in the dock.” See the pattern?

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