Mortgage payments for typical home now exceeds 50% of after-tax family income in every Ontario urban centre; 110% in Toronto

TORONTO—To buy a typical home, Ontario families earning the local median income would have to devote more than 50 per cent of their after-tax earnings to monthly mortgage payments in Ontario’s 14 urban centres, and more than 110 per cent in Toronto, finds a new report published today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank.

“There is a perception that housing outside of the GTA is still somewhat affordable, but that’s not true. Even in cities like Windsor and Kingston, buying a typical home would require a family earning the local median income to spend more than half of its after-tax earnings on mortgage payments,” said Austin Thompson, senior policy analyst with the Fraser Institute, and co-author of Home Ownership and Rent Affordability in Canadian CMAs, 2014-2023.

The study finds that in Ontario’s 14 largest cities, the monthly mortgage payment required to buy a typical home ranged between 50.4 per cent (Ottawa-Gatineau) and 110.2 per cent (Toronto) of the local median after-tax family income—after a 20 per cent down payment on the home purchase.

The study also found that mortgage affordability deteriorated markedly since 2014. In 2014, the share of median after-tax family income needed for the mortgage payment on a typical home ranged from 21.1 per cent (Windsor) to 56 per cent (Toronto).

When thinking about housing affordability, one needs to assess both income and home prices. Crucially, while house prices have increased, Ontario worker salaries have largely stagnated over this ten-year period, which has contributed to the decline in housing affordability.

“Housing affordability is a function of both home prices and incomes, and as wages and incomes have flatlined across Ontario in recent years, housing unaffordability crisis has worsened,” said Steven Globerman, Fraser Institute senior fellow and study co-author.

“To make housing more affordable for Ontario families, policymakers should focus on increasing wages and incomes as part of the overall solution.”

Share of Average Family After-Tax Income Needed for a Monthly Mortgage Payment

in Ontario’s Census Metropolitan Areas over 100,000 population in 2023

*NOTE: Data not available for Thunder Bay and Greater Sudbury

Media Contact:
Steven Globerman, Senior Fellow, Fraser Institute

To arrange media interviews or for more information, please contact:
Drue MacPherson, Fraser Institute
604-688-0221 ext. 721
drue.macpherson@fraserinstitute.org

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